{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "evidence_asof": "2026-10-12",
  "rule_status": "proposed; JSC adoption required",
  "strategic_framework": "Seven TEConomy/ARA growth opportunity areas; six delivery bets are an implementation view",
  "baseline": {
    "si": 1.0,
    "rank": 10,
    "peers": 3,
    "need": 2,
    "use_t2": true,
    "use_t5": false,
    "alt": null,
    "use_t3": true,
    "use_t4": true
  },
  "min_supported_passes": 2,
  "final_rule": "raw enabled-test passes >= need AND strong/moderate passes >= 2",
  "t3": "provisional economic/strategic alignment, not validated demand",
  "t4": "peer-plan positioning only; coarse AI coding and unequal theme granularity",
  "enabling_capabilities": "AI, ML, cybersecurity and data analytics support all seven sectors whether or not named in a sector title. Historical standalone-science or AI-only proxies do not determine enabling eligibility; missing coauthorship does not establish absent collaboration.",
  "grid": {
    "si": [
      1.0,
      1.2
    ],
    "rank": [
      7,
      10
    ],
    "peers": [
      2,
      3,
      5
    ],
    "need": [
      2,
      3
    ],
    "use_t2": [
      true,
      false
    ],
    "use_t5": [
      false,
      true
    ]
  },
  "grid_note": "T3/T4 fixed on in historical factorial grid; removal cases reported separately for every row",
  "counts_note": "scenario frequencies are not probabilities; different output alternatives give different denominators",
  "proposed_commitment_gates": {
    "established_route": "Validate area-specific science capability, usable assets, access, responsible owners and independent evidence before project commitments.",
    "build_route": "For a capability gap, document adjacent capabilities, commercial or public/service problem owner, feasible technical milestone and review/stop decision; do not claim an established strength.",
    "demand": "Named commercial, public or service problem owner; documented need; access/data/test site or other contribution; intended adopter and observable outcome. No support is inferred from location, sector or SBIR alone.",
    "readiness": "Institution review of distinct people/skills, usable facilities and access, partner roles, continuity risk and deliverable owner; no ranking or target for individual researchers.",
    "status": "Proposed workflow, not a new numeric score or a claim of validated demand/readiness; JSC decides."
  },
  "seven_sector_audit": "data/st-plan/selection-sector-audit.json",
  "opportunity_crosswalk": "data/st-plan/selection-opportunity-crosswalk.csv",
  "results": {
    "P1": {
      "tier": "A",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": true,
      "variants_survived": 264,
      "variants_total": 288,
      "cls": "robust in",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P2": {
      "tier": "A",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": true,
      "variants_survived": 192,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "robust in",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P2-T": {
      "tier": "A",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 192,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "robust in",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P3": {
      "tier": "A",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": true,
      "variants_survived": 276,
      "variants_total": 288,
      "cls": "robust in",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P3-IW": {
      "tier": "A",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 176,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "robust in",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P4a": {
      "tier": "B",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": true,
      "variants_survived": 36,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "in, fragile",
      "flips": [
        "without_t2",
        "without_t3_provisional"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P4b": {
      "tier": "A",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": true,
      "variants_survived": 256,
      "variants_total": 288,
      "cls": "robust in",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P5": {
      "tier": "B",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": true,
      "variants_survived": 48,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "in, fragile",
      "flips": [
        "need_3_tests",
        "without_t2"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P5-POP": {
      "tier": "B",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 48,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "in, fragile",
      "flips": [
        "need_3_tests",
        "without_t2"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P5-PERI": {
      "tier": "B",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 96,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "in, fragile",
      "flips": [
        "need_3_tests",
        "without_t2"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P5-IMPL": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 24,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "with_t5_as_5th"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P5-ONC": {
      "tier": "B",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 72,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "in, fragile",
      "flips": [
        "need_3_tests",
        "without_t2",
        "alt_list_E1t"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P5-RAD": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 24,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "with_t5_as_5th"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P6": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 0,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "robust out",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P6-FQ": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 36,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "with_t5_as_5th"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "P7": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 32,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "peers_le_5"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "X-WATER": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 18,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "with_t5_as_5th"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "X-QUANT": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 48,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "alt_list_N1t"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "X-ENERGY": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 0,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "robust out",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "X-BIOMFG": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 0,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "robust out",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "X-AERO": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 24,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "with_t5_as_5th"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "X-TIMBER": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 0,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "robust out",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "X-TOX": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 72,
      "variants_total": 288,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "with_t5_as_5th"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "W-INFECT": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 0,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "robust out",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "W-MSK": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 60,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "out, near miss",
      "flips": [
        "with_t5_as_5th",
        "alt_list_E5t"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "H1": {
      "tier": "B",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 108,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "in, fragile",
      "flips": [
        "need_3_tests",
        "without_t2",
        "without_t3_provisional"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "H2": {
      "tier": "not headline",
      "final_eligible": false,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 0,
      "variants_total": 96,
      "cls": "robust out",
      "flips": [],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    },
    "H3": {
      "tier": "B",
      "final_eligible": true,
      "headline": false,
      "variants_survived": 72,
      "variants_total": 192,
      "cls": "in, fragile",
      "flips": [
        "need_3_tests",
        "without_t2",
        "alt_list_N9t"
      ],
      "missing_awards": [],
      "excluded_awards": []
    }
  }
}