Selected measures and interpretation

Anchor facts have an exact source scope. Supporting measures remain useful when their narrower meaning is stated; they are not substitutes for demand, readiness or an unavailable area total. Values below retain analytical precision; the narrative uses readable rounding.

food_jobs

Food manufacturing private jobs: 51,799 jobs. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Food manufacturing; NAICS2022 311.

Calculation: Direct published annual average.

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=311;2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure.

food_growth

Food manufacturing employment change: 3.75363 percent. Reference period: 2022-2025.

Scope: Food manufacturing; NAICS2022 311.

Calculation: 100*(2025 jobs / 2022 jobs - 1).

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=311;2022,2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. A source reclassification can change counts; no causal interpretation.

metals_jobs

Primary metals manufacturing private jobs: 8,860 jobs. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Primary metals manufacturing; NAICS2022 331.

Calculation: Direct published annual average.

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=331;2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure.

metals_growth

Primary metals manufacturing employment change: 9.9392 percent. Reference period: 2022-2025.

Scope: Primary metals manufacturing; NAICS2022 331.

Calculation: 100*(2025 jobs / 2022 jobs - 1).

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=331;2022,2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. A source reclassification can change counts; no causal interpretation.

trucking_jobs

Trucking private jobs: 31,318 jobs. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Trucking; NAICS2022 484.

Calculation: Direct published annual average.

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=484;2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure.

trucking_growth

Trucking employment change: -5.56343 percent. Reference period: 2022-2025.

Scope: Trucking; NAICS2022 484.

Calculation: 100*(2025 jobs / 2022 jobs - 1).

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=484;2022,2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. A source reclassification can change counts; no causal interpretation.

retail_jobs

Retail trade private jobs: 143,001 jobs. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Retail trade; NAICS2022 44-45.

Calculation: Direct published annual average.

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=44-45;2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure.

retail_growth

Retail trade employment change: 0.158993 percent. Reference period: 2022-2025.

Scope: Retail trade; NAICS2022 44-45.

Calculation: 100*(2025 jobs / 2022 jobs - 1).

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=44-45;2022,2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. A source reclassification can change counts; no causal interpretation.

warehousing_jobs

Warehousing private jobs: 15,624 jobs. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Warehousing; NAICS2022 493.

Calculation: Direct published annual average.

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=493;2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: supporting. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure.

warehousing_growth

Warehousing employment change: 4.34783 percent. Reference period: 2022-2025.

Scope: Warehousing; NAICS2022 493.

Calculation: 100*(2025 jobs / 2022 jobs - 1).

Source selection: 05000;own5;size0;industry=493;2022,2025. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: supporting. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. A source reclassification can change counts; no causal interpretation.

food_lq

Private employment concentration: 3.50772 ratio. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Exact named NAICS2022 industry, compared within private employment.

Calculation: (AR industry jobs/AR private jobs)/(US industry jobs/US private jobs).

Source selection: industry=311;AR and US000;own5;total industry10. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. This differs from the published all-ownership-denominator BLS LQ.

trucking_lq

Private employment concentration: 2.54575 ratio. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Exact named NAICS2022 industry, compared within private employment.

Calculation: (AR industry jobs/AR private jobs)/(US industry jobs/US private jobs).

Source selection: industry=484;AR and US000;own5;total industry10. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: anchor. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. This differs from the published all-ownership-denominator BLS LQ.

power_hardware_growth

Employment change in named industries: -8.87545 percent. Reference period: 2022-2025.

Scope: Explicit nonoverlapping sum of NAICS2022 3344+3353.

Calculation: 100*(sum2025/sum2022-1).

Source selection: AR;own5;2022,2025;codes=3344+3353. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: supporting. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. Does not isolate power electronics, clinical research or user demand.

health_services_growth

Employment change in named industries: 8.83432 percent. Reference period: 2022-2025.

Scope: Explicit nonoverlapping sum of NAICS2022 621+622.

Calculation: 100*(sum2025/sum2022-1).

Source selection: AR;own5;2022,2025;codes=621+622. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2022_annual_singlefile.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/qcew/2025_annual_singlefile.zip.

Use: supporting. Covered private wage-and-salary jobs, not unique people, self-employment or a complete emerging-market measure. Does not isolate power electronics, clinical research or user demand.

rice_share

Arkansas share of US rice production: 45.2084 percent. Reference period: 2025 annual.

Scope: Physical rice production in CWT; same annual SURVEY release, AR and US.

Calculation: 100*AR production/US production.

Source selection: SURVEY;2025;ANNUAL;YEAR;TOTAL;RICE production CWT;AR/US. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/agriculture/qs.crops_20261024.txt.gz.

Use: anchor. Production share does not measure farm income, irrigation efficiency, aquifer sustainability or adoption.

AI_AR

Employer-business AI use: 11.7 percent. Reference period: Collection 2025-11-17 to 2026-02-08.

Scope: Question1 scope1: AI use in any business function in prior two weeks; employer businesses.

Calculation: Direct published estimate.

Source selection: State;question1;scope1;Yes;Estimate. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/census_btos/AI_Supplement_Table_2026.xlsx.

Use: anchor. Experimental survey; preserve standard errors. No Arkansas-by-sector estimate or splice across the November2025 wording break.

AI_US

Employer-business AI use: 17.9 percent. Reference period: Collection 2025-11-17 to 2026-02-08.

Scope: Question1 scope1: AI use in any business function in prior two weeks; employer businesses.

Calculation: Direct published estimate.

Source selection: National;question1;scope1;Yes;Estimate. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/census_btos/AI_Supplement_Table_2026.xlsx.

Use: anchor. Experimental survey; preserve standard errors. No Arkansas-by-sector estimate or splice across the November2025 wording break.

HERD_growth_AR

Academic R&D expenditure growth: 33.8862 percent nominal. Reference period: 2019-2024.

Scope: Full and short HERD survey institutions; geography=AR.

Calculation: 100*(2024 expenditure/2019 expenditure-1).

Source selection: Source all-R&D totals;full+short institutions once;2019,2024. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/ncses_herd/higher_education_r_and_d_2019.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/ncses_herd/higher_education_r_and_d_2019_short.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/ncses_herd/higher_education_r_and_d_2024.zip;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/ncses_herd/higher_education_r_and_d_2024_short.zip;data/analysis/2026-10-26-plan-evidence-v1/academic-rd-state-context.csv.

Use: anchor. Nominal expenditures, not new awards, real growth or economic impact. Imputation retained; US50DC explicitly excludes territories.

HERD_growth_US50DC

Academic R&D expenditure growth: 40.7733 percent nominal. Reference period: 2019-2024.

Scope: Full and short HERD survey institutions; geography=US50DC.

Calculation: 100*(2024 expenditure/2019 expenditure-1).

Use: anchor. Nominal expenditures, not new awards, real growth or economic impact. Imputation retained; US50DC explicitly excludes territories.

HERD_AR_2024

Academic R&D expenditures: 492.045 million nominal USD. Reference period: FY2024.

Scope: All R&D at standard and short survey institutions in Arkansas.

Calculation: thousand USD/1000.

Source selection: Table5;Arkansas;All R&D expenditures. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/raw/ncses_herd/nsf26304-data-tables-tables.zip.

Use: anchor. Includes source-imputed expenditure. Survey spending is not a facility operating budget or grant award amount.

BERD_intensity_05000

Survey-covered business R&D relative to GDP: 0.398123 percent of GDP. Reference period: Calendar2023.

Scope: BERD domestic R&D performed by covered for-profit nonfarm companies with10+ US employees; GDP all industries.

Calculation: 100*R&D million current USD/GDP million current USD.

Source selection: BERD Table13 Arkansas Total;SAGDP2 05000 line1.0;2023. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/processed/ncses_berd/tables/nsf25354-tab013__Table_13.parquet;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/processed/bea/csv/SAGDP__SAGDP2__ALL_AREAS_1997_2025.parquet.

Use: supporting. Survey-estimated macro research intensity, not ROI, all-business R&D or an Arkansas sector estimate. State estimates use modeling/imputation; update after new-release and revision review.

BERD_intensity_00000

Survey-covered business R&D relative to GDP: 2.59396 percent of GDP. Reference period: Calendar2023.

Scope: BERD domestic R&D performed by covered for-profit nonfarm companies with10+ US employees; GDP all industries.

Calculation: 100*R&D million current USD/GDP million current USD.

Source selection: BERD Table13 All states Total;SAGDP2 00000 line1.0;2023. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/snapshots/2026-10-26/processed/ncses_berd/tables/nsf25354-tab013__Table_13.parquet;data/snapshots/2026-10-26/processed/bea/csv/SAGDP__SAGDP2__ALL_AREAS_1997_2025.parquet.

SBIR_2015_firms

Observed SBIR/STTR portfolio breadth and amounts: 32 observed firm identities. Reference period: 2015-2019.

Scope: Current national award-observation universe; Arkansas state of award.

Calculation: Distinct source firm IDs or reported award-observation amount sum.

Source selection: AR;start_year=2015;all_observations. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/analysis/2026-10-26-plan-evidence-v1/sbir-observed-portfolio-sensitivity.csv.

Use: supporting. Not spin-outs, unique projects, obligations or commercialization. Equal counts do not imply identical firm sets; ambiguous/repeated-identity sensitivity remains required.

SBIR_2015_amount

Observed SBIR/STTR portfolio breadth and amounts: 3.58288e+07 nominal USD of award observations. Reference period: 2015-2019.

Scope: Current national award-observation universe; Arkansas state of award.

Calculation: Distinct source firm IDs or reported award-observation amount sum.

Source selection: AR;start_year=2015;all_observations. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/analysis/2026-10-26-plan-evidence-v1/sbir-observed-portfolio-sensitivity.csv.

Use: supporting. Not spin-outs, unique projects, obligations or commercialization. Equal counts do not imply identical firm sets; ambiguous/repeated-identity sensitivity remains required.

SBIR_2020_firms

Observed SBIR/STTR portfolio breadth and amounts: 32 observed firm identities. Reference period: 2020-2024.

Scope: Current national award-observation universe; Arkansas state of award.

Calculation: Distinct source firm IDs or reported award-observation amount sum.

Source selection: AR;start_year=2020;all_observations. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/analysis/2026-10-26-plan-evidence-v1/sbir-observed-portfolio-sensitivity.csv.

Use: supporting. Not spin-outs, unique projects, obligations or commercialization. Equal counts do not imply identical firm sets; ambiguous/repeated-identity sensitivity remains required.

SBIR_2020_amount

Observed SBIR/STTR portfolio breadth and amounts: 6.68638e+07 nominal USD of award observations. Reference period: 2020-2024.

Scope: Current national award-observation universe; Arkansas state of award.

Calculation: Distinct source firm IDs or reported award-observation amount sum.

Source selection: AR;start_year=2020;all_observations. Source paths within the retained snapshot or project: data/analysis/2026-10-26-plan-evidence-v1/sbir-observed-portfolio-sensitivity.csv.

Use: supporting. Not spin-outs, unique projects, obligations or commercialization. Equal counts do not imply identical firm sets; ambiguous/repeated-identity sensitivity remains required.

Source verification

Original-source reconciliation compares selected QCEW and BEA CSV cells, NASS annual physical observations, BTOS workbook cells, and NCSES original native/published totals with the analytical inputs. Original-source provenance retains official URLs, retrieval dates and hashes. Input hashes and the inherited analysis manifest retain the chain. This is an analytical verification of scope and arithmetic; domain and user review remain separate.

Definitions for publication

Employment concentration equals the Arkansas private-employment share divided by the same industry's share in the published US private-employment total. This is separately calculated from BLS's published LQ, whose denominator includes government. A concentration of 3.5 means a share 3.5 times as large, not an industry 3.5 times larger in absolute size.

Growth equals 100 times the later value divided by the earlier value minus one. Detailed QCEW trends use the same NAICS2022 vintage. Spending growth here is nominal. An R&D/GDP ratio uses both amounts in current dollars, the same calendar year and compatible geography; it is research intensity, not an investment return.

A period, cohort or classification change may prevent a comparison even when two values are numeric. Source missingness and suppression remain distinct from true zero. New operating measures need a defined reporting population before an observed zero or rate is valid.