{
  "n": 28,
  "rng_seed": 20261011,
  "n_boot": 10000,
  "n_perm": 10000,
  "corr_all": [
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.033,
      "ci_lo": -0.384,
      "ci_hi": 0.446,
      "perm_p": 0.8755
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.126,
      "ci_lo": -0.314,
      "ci_hi": 0.544,
      "perm_p": 0.5174
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.082,
      "ci_lo": -0.352,
      "ci_hi": 0.491,
      "perm_p": 0.6838
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.074,
      "ci_lo": -0.327,
      "ci_hi": 0.458,
      "perm_p": 0.6893
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.096,
      "ci_lo": -0.351,
      "ci_hi": 0.486,
      "perm_p": 0.6158
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.057,
      "ci_lo": -0.389,
      "ci_hi": 0.462,
      "perm_p": 0.7766
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.172,
      "ci_lo": -0.491,
      "ci_hi": 0.193,
      "perm_p": 0.3894
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.104,
      "ci_lo": -0.531,
      "ci_hi": 0.329,
      "perm_p": 0.5891
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.042,
      "ci_lo": -0.488,
      "ci_hi": 0.385,
      "perm_p": 0.8315
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.0,
      "ci_lo": -0.364,
      "ci_hi": 0.356,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.005,
      "ci_lo": -0.418,
      "ci_hi": 0.406,
      "perm_p": 0.991
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.079,
      "ci_lo": -0.323,
      "ci_hi": 0.475,
      "perm_p": 0.6831
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.072,
      "ci_lo": -0.334,
      "ci_hi": 0.475,
      "perm_p": 0.7096
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.022,
      "ci_lo": -0.36,
      "ci_hi": 0.43,
      "perm_p": 0.9058
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.003,
      "ci_lo": -0.38,
      "ci_hi": 0.38,
      "perm_p": 0.987
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.056,
      "ci_lo": -0.436,
      "ci_hi": 0.333,
      "perm_p": 0.7631
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.109,
      "ci_lo": -0.49,
      "ci_hi": 0.296,
      "perm_p": 0.5784
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.191,
      "ci_lo": -0.565,
      "ci_hi": 0.197,
      "perm_p": 0.3297
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.079,
      "ci_lo": -0.354,
      "ci_hi": 0.462,
      "perm_p": 0.6768
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier1",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.131,
      "ci_lo": -0.307,
      "ci_hi": 0.511,
      "perm_p": 0.5074
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.166,
      "ci_lo": -0.254,
      "ci_hi": 0.537,
      "perm_p": 0.4004
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.228,
      "ci_lo": -0.192,
      "ci_hi": 0.588,
      "perm_p": 0.2394
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.163,
      "ci_lo": -0.262,
      "ci_hi": 0.546,
      "perm_p": 0.3949
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.194,
      "ci_lo": -0.168,
      "ci_hi": 0.539,
      "perm_p": 0.3184
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.298,
      "ci_lo": -0.133,
      "ci_hi": 0.623,
      "perm_p": 0.127
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.247,
      "ci_lo": -0.161,
      "ci_hi": 0.601,
      "perm_p": 0.196
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.045,
      "ci_lo": -0.369,
      "ci_hi": 0.293,
      "perm_p": 0.8213
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.03,
      "ci_lo": -0.381,
      "ci_hi": 0.423,
      "perm_p": 0.889
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.104,
      "ci_lo": -0.486,
      "ci_hi": 0.336,
      "perm_p": 0.6073
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier2",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.167,
      "ci_lo": -0.481,
      "ci_hi": 0.185,
      "perm_p": 0.3919
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.0,
      "ci_lo": -0.401,
      "ci_hi": 0.393,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.022,
      "ci_lo": -0.399,
      "ci_hi": 0.429,
      "perm_p": 0.9125
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.031,
      "ci_lo": -0.37,
      "ci_hi": 0.42,
      "perm_p": 0.8753
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.073,
      "ci_lo": -0.486,
      "ci_hi": 0.335,
      "perm_p": 0.7143
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.051,
      "ci_lo": -0.474,
      "ci_hi": 0.354,
      "perm_p": 0.8023
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.036,
      "ci_lo": -0.453,
      "ci_hi": 0.382,
      "perm_p": 0.8503
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.296,
      "ci_lo": -0.599,
      "ci_hi": 0.058,
      "perm_p": 0.123
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.057,
      "ci_lo": -0.487,
      "ci_hi": 0.367,
      "perm_p": 0.7811
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.035,
      "ci_lo": -0.475,
      "ci_hi": 0.431,
      "perm_p": 0.8645
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tier3",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.027,
      "ci_lo": -0.327,
      "ci_hi": 0.281,
      "perm_p": 0.8998
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.115,
      "ci_lo": -0.292,
      "ci_hi": 0.452,
      "perm_p": 0.6546
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.191,
      "ci_lo": -0.247,
      "ci_hi": 0.586,
      "perm_p": 0.3224
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.206,
      "ci_lo": -0.211,
      "ci_hi": 0.579,
      "perm_p": 0.2934
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.156,
      "ci_lo": -0.248,
      "ci_hi": 0.533,
      "perm_p": 0.4441
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.157,
      "ci_lo": -0.259,
      "ci_hi": 0.533,
      "perm_p": 0.4191
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.281,
      "ci_lo": -0.15,
      "ci_hi": 0.662,
      "perm_p": 0.1485
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.163,
      "ci_lo": -0.507,
      "ci_hi": 0.202,
      "perm_p": 0.3957
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.105,
      "ci_lo": -0.358,
      "ci_hi": 0.527,
      "perm_p": 0.5844
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.199,
      "ci_lo": -0.61,
      "ci_hi": 0.26,
      "perm_p": 0.3177
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.013,
      "ci_lo": -0.327,
      "ci_hi": 0.36,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.045,
      "ci_lo": -0.416,
      "ci_hi": 0.305,
      "perm_p": 0.8213
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.004,
      "ci_lo": -0.38,
      "ci_hi": 0.366,
      "perm_p": 0.9865
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.051,
      "ci_lo": -0.433,
      "ci_hi": 0.333,
      "perm_p": 0.7898
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.035,
      "ci_lo": -0.345,
      "ci_hi": 0.397,
      "perm_p": 0.8643
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.049,
      "ci_lo": -0.328,
      "ci_hi": 0.401,
      "perm_p": 0.817
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.067,
      "ci_lo": -0.423,
      "ci_hi": 0.299,
      "perm_p": 0.7386
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.118,
      "ci_lo": -0.471,
      "ci_hi": 0.276,
      "perm_p": 0.5474
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.218,
      "ci_lo": -0.565,
      "ci_hi": 0.188,
      "perm_p": 0.2629
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.038,
      "ci_lo": -0.307,
      "ci_hi": 0.372,
      "perm_p": 0.8488
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.023,
      "ci_lo": -0.359,
      "ci_hi": 0.317,
      "perm_p": 0.9943
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.194,
      "ci_lo": -0.181,
      "ci_hi": 0.512,
      "perm_p": 0.4146
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.238,
      "ci_lo": -0.159,
      "ci_hi": 0.575,
      "perm_p": 0.2644
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.305,
      "ci_lo": -0.1,
      "ci_hi": 0.634,
      "perm_p": 0.1197
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.173,
      "ci_lo": -0.206,
      "ci_hi": 0.515,
      "perm_p": 0.3924
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.16,
      "ci_lo": -0.228,
      "ci_hi": 0.506,
      "perm_p": 0.4209
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.291,
      "ci_lo": -0.09,
      "ci_hi": 0.638,
      "perm_p": 0.1427
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.231,
      "ci_lo": -0.555,
      "ci_hi": 0.137,
      "perm_p": 0.2469
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.111,
      "ci_lo": -0.305,
      "ci_hi": 0.487,
      "perm_p": 0.5694
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.194,
      "ci_lo": -0.559,
      "ci_hi": 0.209,
      "perm_p": 0.3207
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "tgt_matrix",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.026,
      "ci_lo": -0.365,
      "ci_hi": 0.352,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.062,
      "ci_lo": -0.333,
      "ci_hi": 0.348,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.153,
      "ci_lo": -0.258,
      "ci_hi": 0.492,
      "perm_p": 0.4301
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.148,
      "ci_lo": -0.246,
      "ci_hi": 0.485,
      "perm_p": 0.4619
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.169,
      "ci_lo": -0.271,
      "ci_hi": 0.528,
      "perm_p": 0.4881
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.206,
      "ci_lo": -0.233,
      "ci_hi": 0.538,
      "perm_p": 0.3182
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.116,
      "ci_lo": -0.276,
      "ci_hi": 0.454,
      "perm_p": 0.5866
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.164,
      "ci_lo": -0.11,
      "ci_hi": 0.431,
      "perm_p": 0.4421
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.126,
      "ci_lo": -0.509,
      "ci_hi": 0.327,
      "perm_p": 0.5346
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.082,
      "ci_lo": -0.313,
      "ci_hi": 0.453,
      "perm_p": 0.6846
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "map_matrix",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.213,
      "ci_lo": -0.359,
      "ci_hi": -0.096,
      "perm_p": 0.5504
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.038,
      "ci_lo": -0.312,
      "ci_hi": 0.399,
      "perm_p": 0.8625
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.132,
      "ci_lo": -0.3,
      "ci_hi": 0.475,
      "perm_p": 0.5019
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.107,
      "ci_lo": -0.308,
      "ci_hi": 0.474,
      "perm_p": 0.5811
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.025,
      "ci_lo": -0.323,
      "ci_hi": 0.377,
      "perm_p": 0.8963
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.069,
      "ci_lo": -0.29,
      "ci_hi": 0.402,
      "perm_p": 0.7261
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.053,
      "ci_lo": -0.291,
      "ci_hi": 0.397,
      "perm_p": 0.7871
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.054,
      "ci_lo": -0.312,
      "ci_hi": 0.415,
      "perm_p": 0.7833
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.035,
      "ci_lo": -0.332,
      "ci_hi": 0.382,
      "perm_p": 0.8643
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.025,
      "ci_lo": -0.281,
      "ci_hi": 0.324,
      "perm_p": 0.9043
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "n_priorities",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.098,
      "ci_lo": -0.404,
      "ci_hi": 0.212,
      "perm_p": 0.6221
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.505,
      "ci_lo": 0.148,
      "ci_hi": 0.762,
      "perm_p": 0.0072
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.371,
      "ci_lo": -0.042,
      "ci_hi": 0.716,
      "perm_p": 0.055
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.398,
      "ci_lo": -0.047,
      "ci_hi": 0.743,
      "perm_p": 0.0427
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.501,
      "ci_lo": 0.105,
      "ci_hi": 0.803,
      "perm_p": 0.0087
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.296,
      "ci_lo": -0.093,
      "ci_hi": 0.628,
      "perm_p": 0.131
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.346,
      "ci_lo": -0.037,
      "ci_hi": 0.654,
      "perm_p": 0.0812
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.089,
      "ci_lo": -0.438,
      "ci_hi": 0.307,
      "perm_p": 0.6696
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.065,
      "ci_lo": -0.349,
      "ci_hi": 0.447,
      "perm_p": 0.7473
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.107,
      "ci_lo": -0.487,
      "ci_hi": 0.297,
      "perm_p": 0.5991
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.229,
      "ci_lo": -0.092,
      "ci_hi": 0.522,
      "perm_p": 0.2562
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.121,
      "ci_lo": -0.397,
      "ci_hi": 0.242,
      "perm_p": 0.6448
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.195,
      "ci_lo": -0.514,
      "ci_hi": 0.189,
      "perm_p": 0.3527
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.241,
      "ci_lo": -0.577,
      "ci_hi": 0.169,
      "perm_p": 0.2159
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "rounds_won",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.284,
      "ci_lo": -0.627,
      "ci_hi": 0.169,
      "perm_p": 0.1997
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.076,
      "ci_lo": -0.385,
      "ci_hi": 0.251,
      "perm_p": 0.7248
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.088,
      "ci_lo": -0.429,
      "ci_hi": 0.256,
      "perm_p": 0.6731
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.098,
      "ci_lo": -0.323,
      "ci_hi": 0.469,
      "perm_p": 0.6318
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.11,
      "ci_lo": -0.279,
      "ci_hi": 0.494,
      "perm_p": 0.5921
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "nsf_share_fy2020_2024_pct",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.191,
      "ci_lo": -0.509,
      "ci_hi": 0.179,
      "perm_p": 0.3279
    },
    {
      "set": "all 28",
      "predictor": "plan_current",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.243,
      "ci_lo": 0.101,
      "ci_hi": 0.397,
      "perm_p": 0.3139
    }
  ],
  "corr_ex_iowa": [
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.063,
      "ci_lo": -0.48,
      "ci_hi": 0.367,
      "perm_p": 0.7786
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.056,
      "ci_lo": -0.386,
      "ci_hi": 0.473,
      "perm_p": 0.7811
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.011,
      "ci_lo": -0.415,
      "ci_hi": 0.42,
      "perm_p": 0.9583
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.082,
      "ci_lo": -0.319,
      "ci_hi": 0.434,
      "perm_p": 0.6948
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.167,
      "ci_lo": -0.289,
      "ci_hi": 0.575,
      "perm_p": 0.4114
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.184,
      "ci_lo": -0.245,
      "ci_hi": 0.566,
      "perm_p": 0.3649
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.11,
      "ci_lo": -0.464,
      "ci_hi": 0.252,
      "perm_p": 0.5894
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.053,
      "ci_lo": -0.434,
      "ci_hi": 0.32,
      "perm_p": 0.7963
    },
    {
      "set": "excluding Iowa",
      "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.102,
      "ci_lo": -0.478,
      "ci_hi": 0.296,
      "perm_p": 0.6183
    }
  ],
  "contrast_win": [
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "rubric_total",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 31.5,
      "median0": 34.0,
      "mean1": 33.26,
      "mean0": 28.67,
      "rank_biserial": 0.041,
      "ci_lo": -0.509,
      "ci_hi": 0.576,
      "perm_p": 0.8828
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "tier1",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 6.0,
      "median0": 6.0,
      "mean1": 5.76,
      "mean0": 5.72,
      "rank_biserial": -0.006,
      "ci_lo": -0.504,
      "ci_hi": 0.515,
      "perm_p": 0.9888
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "tier2",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 19.5,
      "median0": 21.0,
      "mean1": 21.32,
      "mean0": 17.33,
      "rank_biserial": 0.205,
      "ci_lo": -0.332,
      "ci_hi": 0.687,
      "perm_p": 0.4091
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "tier3",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 5.5,
      "median0": 7.5,
      "mean1": 6.18,
      "mean0": 5.61,
      "rank_biserial": 0.0,
      "ci_lo": -0.506,
      "ci_hi": 0.48,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "C8",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 0,
      "median0": 0,
      "mean1": 0.42,
      "mean0": 0.33,
      "rank_biserial": 0.117,
      "ci_lo": -0.281,
      "ci_hi": 0.476,
      "perm_p": 0.6683
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "mapping_c5_c19",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 1,
      "median0": 1,
      "mean1": 1.05,
      "mean0": 1.11,
      "rank_biserial": -0.053,
      "ci_lo": -0.49,
      "ci_hi": 0.378,
      "perm_p": 0.8168
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 8,
      "median1": 0.94,
      "median0": -1.65,
      "mean1": 1.25,
      "mean0": -0.82,
      "rank_biserial": 0.638,
      "ci_lo": 0.205,
      "ci_hi": 0.971,
      "perm_p": 0.0082
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "n_priorities",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 7,
      "median0": 6,
      "mean1": 6.63,
      "mean0": 6.44,
      "rank_biserial": 0.047,
      "ci_lo": -0.4,
      "ci_hi": 0.483,
      "perm_p": 0.867
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "pop",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 2001619,
      "median0": 1769979,
      "mean1": 2195860.58,
      "mean0": 2257596.56,
      "rank_biserial": -0.064,
      "ci_lo": -0.537,
      "ci_hi": 0.429,
      "perm_p": 0.8023
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "r1",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 2,
      "median0": 2,
      "mean1": 1.47,
      "mean0": 1.56,
      "rank_biserial": -0.041,
      "ci_lo": -0.474,
      "ci_hi": 0.391,
      "perm_p": 0.9
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "herd_musd",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 420.7,
      "median0": 297.9,
      "mean1": 412.84,
      "mean0": 542.13,
      "rank_biserial": -0.123,
      "ci_lo": -0.605,
      "ci_hi": 0.39,
      "perm_p": 0.6351
    },
    {
      "group": "win_any",
      "measure": "articles_2020_2025",
      "n1": 19,
      "n0": 9,
      "median1": 27402,
      "median0": 22985,
      "mean1": 29898.84,
      "mean0": 31182.33,
      "rank_biserial": 0.018,
      "ci_lo": -0.496,
      "ci_hi": 0.513,
      "perm_p": 0.9663
    }
  ],
  "median_rubric": 32.25,
  "tab_t1_vs_win": {
    "rows": "no full Track-1 running on 2025-01-01",
    "cols": "won full E-RISE/E-CORE",
    "a_and_b": 5,
    "a_not_b": 0,
    "nota_b": 14,
    "nota_notb": 9,
    "fisher_p": 0.144
  },
  "tab_recent_t1_vs_win": {
    "rows": "no Track-1 from the 2021-2024 cohorts",
    "cols": "won",
    "a_and_b": 14,
    "a_not_b": 0,
    "nota_b": 5,
    "nota_notb": 9,
    "fisher_p": 0.0006
  },
  "tab_tophalf_vs_win": {
    "rows": "rubric total >= median",
    "cols": "won",
    "a_and_b": 8,
    "a_not_b": 6,
    "nota_b": 11,
    "nota_notb": 3,
    "fisher_p": 0.4197
  },
  "tab_mapflag_vs_win": {
    "rows": "matrix Map = Y",
    "cols": "won",
    "a_and_b": 3,
    "a_not_b": 1,
    "nota_b": 16,
    "nota_notb": 8,
    "fisher_p": 1.0
  },
  "tab_tgt_vs_win": {
    "rows": "any targets (C8>=1 or matrix Tgt=Y)",
    "cols": "won",
    "a_and_b": 8,
    "a_not_b": 2,
    "nota_b": 11,
    "nota_notb": 7,
    "fisher_p": 0.417
  },
  "tab_current_vs_win": {
    "rows": "plan current (public record)",
    "cols": "won",
    "a_and_b": 15,
    "a_not_b": 8,
    "nota_b": 4,
    "nota_notb": 1,
    "fisher_p": 1.0
  },
  "strata_t1_recent": {
    "n": 14,
    "codes": [
      "AL",
      "AK",
      "HI",
      "ID",
      "IA",
      "KS",
      "KY",
      "MT",
      "NE",
      "NV",
      "SC",
      "VT",
      "WV",
      "WY"
    ],
    "winners": 5,
    "corr": [
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "rubric_total",
        "outcome": "win_any",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.055,
        "ci_lo": -0.476,
        "ci_hi": 0.576,
        "perm_p": 0.8953
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "rubric_total",
        "outcome": "ex_projects",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.036,
        "ci_lo": -0.468,
        "ci_hi": 0.536,
        "perm_p": 0.8985
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "rubric_total",
        "outcome": "ex_dollars",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.028,
        "ci_lo": -0.506,
        "ci_hi": 0.526,
        "perm_p": 0.9243
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "C8",
        "outcome": "win_any",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.14,
        "ci_lo": -0.378,
        "ci_hi": 0.701,
        "perm_p": 0.893
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "C8",
        "outcome": "ex_projects",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.01,
        "ci_lo": -0.437,
        "ci_hi": 0.575,
        "perm_p": 1.0
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "C8",
        "outcome": "ex_dollars",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.01,
        "ci_lo": -0.431,
        "ci_hi": 0.569,
        "perm_p": 1.0
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
        "outcome": "win_any",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": -0.059,
        "ci_lo": -0.588,
        "ci_hi": 0.483,
        "perm_p": 1.0
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
        "outcome": "ex_projects",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": -0.059,
        "ci_lo": -0.582,
        "ci_hi": 0.474,
        "perm_p": 0.894
      },
      {
        "set": "t1_recent",
        "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
        "outcome": "ex_dollars",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": -0.082,
        "ci_lo": -0.606,
        "ci_hi": 0.454,
        "perm_p": 0.7576
      }
    ]
  },
  "strata_no_t1_recent": {
    "n": 14,
    "codes": [
      "AR",
      "DE",
      "GU",
      "LA",
      "ME",
      "MS",
      "NH",
      "NM",
      "ND",
      "OK",
      "PR",
      "RI",
      "SD",
      "VI"
    ],
    "winners": 14,
    "corr": [
      {
        "set": "no_t1_recent",
        "predictor": "rubric_total",
        "outcome": "ex_projects",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.314,
        "ci_lo": -0.328,
        "ci_hi": 0.799,
        "perm_p": 0.2832
      },
      {
        "set": "no_t1_recent",
        "predictor": "rubric_total",
        "outcome": "ex_dollars",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.163,
        "ci_lo": -0.409,
        "ci_hi": 0.749,
        "perm_p": 0.5686
      },
      {
        "set": "no_t1_recent",
        "predictor": "C8",
        "outcome": "ex_projects",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.567,
        "ci_lo": 0.122,
        "ci_hi": 0.848,
        "perm_p": 0.072
      },
      {
        "set": "no_t1_recent",
        "predictor": "C8",
        "outcome": "ex_dollars",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.559,
        "ci_lo": 0.126,
        "ci_hi": 0.827,
        "perm_p": 0.039
      },
      {
        "set": "no_t1_recent",
        "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
        "outcome": "ex_projects",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.06,
        "ci_lo": -0.474,
        "ci_hi": 0.551,
        "perm_p": 0.8368
      },
      {
        "set": "no_t1_recent",
        "predictor": "mapping_c5_c19",
        "outcome": "ex_dollars",
        "n": 14,
        "rho": 0.037,
        "ci_lo": -0.508,
        "ci_hi": 0.61,
        "perm_p": 0.8933
      }
    ]
  },
  "confound": [
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "pop",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.118,
      "ci_lo": -0.315,
      "ci_hi": 0.512,
      "perm_p": 0.5356
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "r1",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.083,
      "ci_lo": -0.469,
      "ci_hi": 0.337,
      "perm_p": 0.6923
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "herd_musd",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.002,
      "ci_lo": -0.45,
      "ci_hi": 0.438,
      "perm_p": 0.9913
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "articles_2020_2025",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.089,
      "ci_lo": -0.359,
      "ci_hi": 0.503,
      "perm_p": 0.6416
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.0,
      "ci_lo": -0.346,
      "ci_hi": 0.357,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "t1_running_2025_01",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.006,
      "ci_lo": -0.359,
      "ci_hi": 0.343,
      "perm_p": 0.9848
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "t1_recent_cohort",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.058,
      "ci_lo": -0.333,
      "ci_hi": 0.468,
      "perm_p": 0.7781
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "pop",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.047,
      "ci_lo": -0.346,
      "ci_hi": 0.395,
      "perm_p": 0.8285
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "r1",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.031,
      "ci_lo": -0.359,
      "ci_hi": 0.395,
      "perm_p": 0.885
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "herd_musd",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.049,
      "ci_lo": -0.441,
      "ci_hi": 0.35,
      "perm_p": 0.8075
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "articles_2020_2025",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.088,
      "ci_lo": -0.463,
      "ci_hi": 0.292,
      "perm_p": 0.6553
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "t1_full_2015on",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": 0.229,
      "ci_lo": -0.098,
      "ci_hi": 0.533,
      "perm_p": 0.2529
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "t1_running_2025_01",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.055,
      "ci_lo": -0.456,
      "ci_hi": 0.38,
      "perm_p": 0.7873
    },
    {
      "set": "plan vs size",
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "outcome": "t1_recent_cohort",
      "n": 27,
      "rho": -0.29,
      "ci_lo": -0.624,
      "ci_hi": 0.112,
      "perm_p": 0.1415
    }
  ],
  "confound_outcome": [
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "pop",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.052,
      "ci_lo": -0.422,
      "ci_hi": 0.322,
      "perm_p": 0.809
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "pop",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.018,
      "ci_lo": -0.351,
      "ci_hi": 0.334,
      "perm_p": 0.9245
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "pop",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.003,
      "ci_lo": -0.34,
      "ci_hi": 0.347,
      "perm_p": 0.9868
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "pop",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.849,
      "ci_lo": -0.91,
      "ci_hi": -0.689,
      "perm_p": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "r1",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.035,
      "ci_lo": -0.389,
      "ci_hi": 0.334,
      "perm_p": 0.8955
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "r1",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.136,
      "ci_lo": -0.498,
      "ci_hi": 0.264,
      "perm_p": 0.4976
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "r1",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.133,
      "ci_lo": -0.482,
      "ci_hi": 0.244,
      "perm_p": 0.5016
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "r1",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.421,
      "ci_lo": -0.764,
      "ci_hi": -0.009,
      "perm_p": 0.0295
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "herd_musd",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.099,
      "ci_lo": -0.47,
      "ci_hi": 0.316,
      "perm_p": 0.6376
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "herd_musd",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.137,
      "ci_lo": -0.501,
      "ci_hi": 0.277,
      "perm_p": 0.4734
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "herd_musd",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.128,
      "ci_lo": -0.492,
      "ci_hi": 0.291,
      "perm_p": 0.5131
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "herd_musd",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.436,
      "ci_lo": -0.709,
      "ci_hi": -0.065,
      "perm_p": 0.023
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "articles_2020_2025",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.014,
      "ci_lo": -0.373,
      "ci_hi": 0.399,
      "perm_p": 0.958
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "articles_2020_2025",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": 0.008,
      "ci_lo": -0.374,
      "ci_hi": 0.412,
      "perm_p": 0.9725
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "articles_2020_2025",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.009,
      "ci_lo": -0.394,
      "ci_hi": 0.381,
      "perm_p": 0.9703
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "articles_2020_2025",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.494,
      "ci_lo": -0.779,
      "ci_hi": -0.1,
      "perm_p": 0.009
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_running_2025_01",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.321,
      "ci_lo": -0.501,
      "ci_hi": -0.16,
      "perm_p": 0.13
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_running_2025_01",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.456,
      "ci_lo": -0.679,
      "ci_hi": -0.202,
      "perm_p": 0.0207
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_running_2025_01",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.453,
      "ci_lo": -0.687,
      "ci_hi": -0.166,
      "perm_p": 0.0137
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_running_2025_01",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.006,
      "ci_lo": -0.31,
      "ci_hi": 0.304,
      "perm_p": 1.0
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_recent_cohort",
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.688,
      "ci_lo": -0.923,
      "ci_hi": -0.471,
      "perm_p": 0.001
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_recent_cohort",
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.726,
      "ci_lo": -0.88,
      "ci_hi": -0.506,
      "perm_p": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_recent_cohort",
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.666,
      "ci_lo": -0.869,
      "ci_hi": -0.37,
      "perm_p": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "set": "size vs outcome",
      "predictor": "t1_recent_cohort",
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "n": 28,
      "rho": -0.097,
      "ci_lo": -0.485,
      "ci_hi": 0.307,
      "perm_p": 0.6296
    }
  ],
  "partial": [
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.1,
      "ci_lo": -0.275,
      "ci_hi": 0.447,
      "n_boot_ok": 2990
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.034,
      "ci_lo": -0.379,
      "ci_hi": 0.446,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.04,
      "ci_lo": -0.396,
      "ci_hi": 0.461,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.101,
      "ci_lo": -0.295,
      "ci_hi": 0.476,
      "n_boot_ok": 2986
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.121,
      "ci_lo": -0.288,
      "ci_hi": 0.494,
      "n_boot_ok": 2991
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.244,
      "ci_lo": -0.128,
      "ci_hi": 0.546,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.127,
      "ci_lo": -0.327,
      "ci_hi": 0.495,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.129,
      "ci_lo": -0.318,
      "ci_hi": 0.535,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.244,
      "ci_lo": -0.127,
      "ci_hi": 0.555,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.233,
      "ci_lo": -0.163,
      "ci_hi": 0.556,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.162,
      "ci_lo": -0.183,
      "ci_hi": 0.496,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.083,
      "ci_lo": -0.347,
      "ci_hi": 0.479,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.083,
      "ci_lo": -0.369,
      "ci_hi": 0.498,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.162,
      "ci_lo": -0.21,
      "ci_hi": 0.495,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.149,
      "ci_lo": -0.237,
      "ci_hi": 0.498,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.167,
      "ci_lo": -0.496,
      "ci_hi": 0.213,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.19,
      "ci_lo": -0.527,
      "ci_hi": 0.139,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.136,
      "ci_lo": -0.52,
      "ci_hi": 0.285,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.189,
      "ci_lo": -0.535,
      "ci_hi": 0.157,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "n": 28,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.209,
      "ci_lo": -0.576,
      "ci_hi": 0.165,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.438,
      "ci_lo": 0.084,
      "ci_hi": 0.69,
      "n_boot_ok": 2995
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.505,
      "ci_lo": 0.136,
      "ci_hi": 0.76,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.506,
      "ci_lo": 0.117,
      "ci_hi": 0.765,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.441,
      "ci_lo": 0.029,
      "ci_hi": 0.698,
      "n_boot_ok": 2995
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "win_any",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.443,
      "ci_lo": 0.06,
      "ci_hi": 0.712,
      "n_boot_ok": 2994
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.244,
      "ci_lo": -0.152,
      "ci_hi": 0.597,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.368,
      "ci_lo": -0.075,
      "ci_hi": 0.709,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.37,
      "ci_lo": -0.069,
      "ci_hi": 0.712,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.244,
      "ci_lo": -0.192,
      "ci_hi": 0.605,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_projects",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.277,
      "ci_lo": -0.19,
      "ci_hi": 0.663,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.288,
      "ci_lo": -0.113,
      "ci_hi": 0.641,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.396,
      "ci_lo": -0.045,
      "ci_hi": 0.732,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.397,
      "ci_lo": -0.069,
      "ci_hi": 0.739,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.289,
      "ci_lo": -0.166,
      "ci_hi": 0.644,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "ex_dollars",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": 0.322,
      "ci_lo": -0.137,
      "ci_hi": 0.685,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.119,
      "ci_lo": -0.501,
      "ci_hi": 0.293,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.122,
      "ci_lo": -0.499,
      "ci_hi": 0.321,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "pop"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.094,
      "ci_lo": -0.522,
      "ci_hi": 0.364,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.138,
      "ci_lo": -0.524,
      "ci_hi": 0.293,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    },
    {
      "predictor": "plan_age_at_2024_07_09",
      "n": 27,
      "outcome": "nsf_obl_fy2025_per_cap",
      "controls": [
        "t1_recent_cohort",
        "herd_musd",
        "r1"
      ],
      "rho_partial": -0.127,
      "ci_lo": -0.573,
      "ci_hi": 0.358,
      "n_boot_ok": 3000
    }
  ],
  "panel_n": 49,
  "panel_codes": [
    "AK",
    "AR",
    "GU",
    "ID",
    "KY",
    "LA",
    "ME",
    "MS",
    "MT",
    "ND",
    "NE",
    "NH",
    "OK",
    "PR",
    "RI",
    "SC",
    "SD",
    "VI",
    "VT",
    "WV"
  ],
  "panel_contrast": {
    "group": "won",
    "measure": "rubric_total",
    "n1": 21,
    "n0": 28,
    "median1": 31.5,
    "median0": 31.25,
    "mean1": 32.52,
    "mean0": 31.46,
    "rank_biserial": 0.049,
    "ci_lo": -0.283,
    "ci_hi": 0.382,
    "perm_p": 0.7798
  },
  "panel_contrast_C8": {
    "group": "won",
    "measure": "C8",
    "n1": 21,
    "n0": 28,
    "median1": 0,
    "median0": 0.0,
    "mean1": 0.38,
    "mean0": 0.43,
    "rank_biserial": -0.026,
    "ci_lo": -0.298,
    "ci_hi": 0.263,
    "perm_p": 0.9153
  },
  "panel_contrast_map": {
    "group": "won",
    "measure": "mapping",
    "n1": 21,
    "n0": 28,
    "median1": 1,
    "median0": 1.0,
    "mean1": 1.05,
    "mean0": 0.93,
    "rank_biserial": 0.058,
    "ci_lo": -0.271,
    "ci_hi": 0.357,
    "perm_p": 0.7158
  },
  "panel_strata": {
    "t1_recent": {
      "group": "won",
      "measure": "rubric_total",
      "n1": 7,
      "n0": 13,
      "median1": 33.0,
      "median0": 34.0,
      "mean1": 35.79,
      "mean0": 30.27,
      "rank_biserial": 0.121,
      "ci_lo": -0.424,
      "ci_hi": 0.631,
      "perm_p": 0.6858
    },
    "no_t1_recent": {
      "group": "won",
      "measure": "rubric_total",
      "n1": 14,
      "n0": 15,
      "median1": 28.0,
      "median0": 29.5,
      "mean1": 30.89,
      "mean0": 32.5,
      "rank_biserial": -0.033,
      "ci_lo": -0.462,
      "ci_hi": 0.412,
      "perm_p": 0.8913
    }
  },
  "panel_corr": [
    {
      "set": "panel (plan in force)",
      "predictor": "rubric_total",
      "outcome": "won",
      "n": 49,
      "rho": 0.042,
      "ci_lo": -0.245,
      "ci_hi": 0.316,
      "perm_p": 0.7728
    },
    {
      "set": "panel (plan in force)",
      "predictor": "C8",
      "outcome": "won",
      "n": 49,
      "rho": -0.026,
      "ci_lo": -0.306,
      "ci_hi": 0.259,
      "perm_p": 0.9073
    },
    {
      "set": "panel (plan in force)",
      "predictor": "mapping",
      "outcome": "won",
      "n": 49,
      "rho": 0.052,
      "ci_lo": -0.232,
      "ci_hi": 0.331,
      "perm_p": 0.7181
    }
  ],
  "panel_invalid_but_won": [
    [
      "PR",
      1
    ],
    [
      "PR",
      3
    ]
  ],
  "panel_win_rate_valid": [
    19,
    46
  ],
  "panel_win_rate_invalid": [
    2,
    3
  ],
  "top7": [
    [
      "SD",
      56.5,
      3,
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "AL",
      53.0,
      0,
      0,
      1
    ],
    [
      "ME",
      51.0,
      3,
      1,
      0
    ],
    [
      "SC",
      50.0,
      1,
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "GU",
      49.0,
      2,
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "WV",
      45.5,
      0,
      0,
      1
    ],
    [
      "KY",
      41.5,
      2,
      1,
      1
    ]
  ],
  "bottom7": [
    [
      "ID",
      20.0,
      1,
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "MS",
      19.5,
      2,
      1,
      0
    ],
    [
      "VI",
      19.0,
      1,
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "OK",
      17.0,
      2,
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "MT",
      10.5,
      0,
      0,
      1
    ],
    [
      "WY",
      7.5,
      0,
      0,
      1
    ],
    [
      "IA",
      0.0,
      0,
      0,
      1
    ]
  ],
  "winners": [
    "AR",
    "DE",
    "GU",
    "ID",
    "KY",
    "LA",
    "ME",
    "MS",
    "ND",
    "NE",
    "NH",
    "NM",
    "OK",
    "PR",
    "RI",
    "SC",
    "SD",
    "VI",
    "VT"
  ],
  "nonwinners": [
    "AK",
    "AL",
    "HI",
    "IA",
    "KS",
    "MT",
    "NV",
    "WV",
    "WY"
  ]
}
